🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.