Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
