Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
